Time Series

Lecture 1 epoch serial Time Series: A set of numerical selective information that is obtained at unremitting periods over sentence or A collection of data observed or recorded at regular intervals of conviction each hour, day, month, quarter or year is called a time series, e.g. the monthly total of passengers carried by rail, daily closing prices of a particular stock on the New York Stock convert constitutes a time series, etc. Time series may consist of weekly production output, monthly sales, annual rainfall, or any other variable for which the value is observed at regular intervals. Time series is examined for two reasons: (a) to understand the past, and (b) to foreknow the future value. Components of time series Analysis of time series involves identifying the components that have led to the fluctuations in the data. There are quaternity basic types of impetuss for time series: 1. Trend Component or Secular trend (T) 2. Cyclical component or cyclical fluctuation (C) 3. Seasonal component or seasonal chromosomal mutation (S) 4. Irregular component or random variation (I) The moulding assumes that any observed value of y is the result of multiplicative influences exerted by the tetrad components. The observed value y is off-key to be the trend value, T, by the combined influence of the cyclical, seasonal, and untypical components.

Trend component (T): A secular trend is a long-term upward or downward pattern of movement that persists for not less than 10 years, e.g. sales, prices, industrial production, etc. It alike helps in bank line planning. To the extent that the trend component is present, a regression line fitted to the points on the time series eyepatch will have either a positive or negative slope. Reason for Influence: Changes in technology, population, wealth, value, etc Instructor: Azmat Nafees Time Series & Forecasting 8-Jan-11 1 Cyclical component (C): called up-and-down swings or movements through four The so-called business cycles which represent repeating up phases of business: from... If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: Ordercustompaper.com

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